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TrendForce projects that global laptop shipments will decline by a low single-digit percentage in 2027. This forecast suggests manufacturers may reconsider production strategies outside China, as the share of global notebook production there is expected to drop from 24% in 2025 to below 20% in 2027. The firm notes that rising costs for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs are making manufacturing locations beyond China less attractive.

The primary concern identified by TrendForce is a shift from component availability issues to weakening consumer demand. While improved CPU availability might lead manufacturers to stock up on components in 2026, the company warns this does not guarantee healthy sales. Some customers have already upgraded devices earlier than planned due to anticipated price hikes, meaning fewer people are expected to buy new laptops in 2027.

Manufacturers face a difficult choice regarding rising costs, which make up about 68% of the bill of materials for mainstream notebooks. If companies pass these higher costs to consumers, demand could fall by a high single-digit percentage. Alternatively, if they absorb the costs or adjust product specifications like memory capacity, their profit margins will be squeezed. TrendForce states that in 2027, manufacturers are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability all at once.